The real estate market follows trends. There is an upcycle where it is a seller’s market, due to low inventory, good interest rates and a strong economy. Followed by a down turn, a buyer’s market, where inflation starts to climb, higher interest rates, and homes staying on the market for a longer time. While these trends are constant it is a challenge to predicate the next cycle. One of the ways we do this is by following current real estate markets and recognizing patterns. This year for 2021, I have decided to focus on month-to-month trends rather than year to date. So much is happening in our world and so often that what was going on last year doesn’t seem to matter. The data from our local MLS is from the previous month so each month will be detailing the past month. For your personal review I will continue to upload all the great pdfs that contain stats from our local MLS.
For the quick overview I have create a simple table for
ASHEVILLE REGION report includes Burke, Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania, Yancey counties. Comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums combined.
SPECIAL FOCUS AREA
VERY INTERESTING STAT
Each month you will be able to review the current market by visiting our YouTube Market Update Playlist
You have probably heard the quote, “location, location, location”. It really is all about location. An identical house in downtown Asheville, NC will sale for several thousand dollars more than the same house located in Candler, NC. Currently, people want to live as close to downtown Asheville as possible. The majority of people moving to the area want to partake in the food, fun, and events that occur downtown. If they can afford it they would like to be able to walk to restaurants and pubs.
This week I did something different for the YouTube video update. I used a program I have to compare apples to apples and see what a difference location makes. I was comparing the median home price for May 2020. I reviewed different cities and towns in Buncombe Co. NC.
3 bedrooms/ 2 baths
Tradition (not distressed) resale existing homes (currently new construction is always more then existing homes)
1,000-2000 square feet
Asheville city $314,500
Alexander $ 260,450
Black Mountain $198,650
As you can see there is a big difference between Asheville city proper and the surrounding towns. The same holds true for increase resale value. While you may end up paying more for the city limits of Asheville, in most cases you will also end up selling it for more.
This is important for sellers whose house is only 20 minutes from down town Asheville. An appraiser will compare houses closest to you because location does make a difference.
This is also important for buyers. Depending on what you want and if living in the city is not important to you then you can get a bigger yard and maybe a bigger house for the same price of that house on the infield lot.
Be sure to view this week’s YouTube update and subscribe.
We have been looking week to week concerning our local real estate market. Now it is time for the more comprehensive update. The data is collected from our local Canopy MLS. Now that the Covid 19 crisis has had a full month run in real estate it is important to examine our Greater Asheville region, which includes Burke, Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania and Yancey.
Canopy’s April report stated: “Year-over-year sales declined 14.5 percent in April 2020 across the 13 counties, with 737 homes sold. Compared to March 2020, sales were down 12.1 percent. Year-to-date figures for 2020 show the Asheville region with sales still positive and up 6.9 percent compared to sales during the first four months of 2019.
Pending contracts, the metric that indicates buyer demand, declined 21.3 percent year over- year with 840 contracts written in April, while new listing activity had a deeper decline with listings down 43.9 percent year-over-year with 936 homes listed. There were 1,667 homes listed for sale during the same time last year. Prices across the region increased, with both the median sales price ($266,500) and the average sales price ($315,167) rising 4.5 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.
The Asheville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) had year-over-year sales decline 20.9 percent in April 2020 with 483 homes sold compared to 611 last year. However, sales during the first four months of the year compared to the same period last year rose 4.8 percent with 2,099 properties sold. Stay at home orders forced buyers to the sidelines as pending contract activity fell 27.3 percent year-over-year in April; while new listings had an even sharper decline of 41.3 percent year-over-year. As inventory continued to fall (down 24.7 percent year-over-year at report time), prices rose in April, responding to seller’s market conditions that have been prevalent for the past few years. Both the median sales price ($294,500) and the average sales price ($341,129) rose 6.7 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. Homes averaged 69 days on market in April and the MSA has 3.3 months of supply of homes for sale at report time.
Buncombe County, with its stronger stay at home order, saw sales decline 27.8 percent year-over-year as 236 homes were sold in April 2020 compared to 327 sold last April. Year-to-date sales show the county’s sales up 3.5 percent compared to sales during the first four months of last year. Both pending contract activity and new listings activity had sharp declines in activity year-over-year, with pending sales falling 30.2 percent and new listings down 39.5 percent. Prices continued to rise in response to seller’s market conditions. Both the median sales price ($309,000) and the average sales price ($373,598) increased slightly, up 1.3 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. Inventory was down 23.8 percent year-over-year in April, leaving the county with 3.2 months supply of homes for sale. Homes sold quickly during the month, as days on market averaged 51 days in April 2020 compared to 61 days in April 2019.
Sales in Haywood County fell 9.8 percent year-over-year with 92 homes sold during the month compared to 102 homes sold last April. However, year-to-date figures show sales up 14.3 percent compared to the first four months of last year. Pending sales declined 18.4 percent year-over-year in April with 80 contracts written, while new listing activity was nearly half of what it was last year, falling 48.4 percent with 81 homes listed for sale compared to 157 last year. Prices increased modestly year-over-year with the median sales price ($225,000) and the average sales price ($268,807) rising 1.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. Inventory was down 25.3 percent year-over-year with 348 homes on market or 3.6 months of supply. There was no change year-over-year in days on market, which averaged 95 days in April.
Henderson County’s sales were down 15.2 percent year-over-year in April 2020, with 140 homes sold compared to 165 homes sold during April 2019. Year-to-date figures show sales still positive and up 2.9 percent over sales during the first four months of last year. Pending contract activity declined 24.4 percent year-over-year with 146 contracts in the pipeline compared to 193 contracts written last year. New listings also declined 40.2 percent year-over-year, with only 174 listings added to the market compared to 291 that were listed last year. Prices rose sharply as inventory declined 27.4 percent yea over-year, leaving 515 homes for sale at report time. The median sales price of $316,950 increased 13.2 percent compared to last year, while the average sales price of $341,941 rose 14.7 percent over last year. Days on market averaged 67 days in April compared to 72 days on market a year ago, and the county had 3.0 months of supply of homes for sale at report time.
In Madison County sales were down 11.8 percent year-over-year in April 2020 with 15 homes sold, while year-to-date figures show sales are up 1.8 percent with 57 homes 3 sold compared to 56 homes sold during the first four months of 2019. Pending sales, which only totaled 12 in April, fell 36.8 percent year-over-year, while new listing activity declined 47.7 percent year-over-year with just 23 homes newly listed compared to 44 last April. Both the median ($228,500) and the average ($266,293) sales prices rose 69.3 percent and 54.8 percent year-over-year in April, respectively. Madison County is a buyer’s market with 7.4 months of supply and 137 homes for sale compared to 171 homes for sales in April 2019. Properties averaged 212 days on market in April compared to 73 days this time last year.”
The city of Asheville usually has the larger percentage of price point and numbers in the region. New listings were down for the month of April and with that so is the inventory. Therefor the average list price continues to climb in Asheville city limits.
The city of Hendersonville saw a 14.7% increase in the closed prices, in the month of April.
If you would like the pdf reports which includes charts and graphs for all of the great Asheville region, please email me.
Please watch this video for my interpretation and predictions of our local real estate market.
I am comparing this week to last week stats for Buncombe County single family homes. Buncombe Co. still has the #stayathome order in place. This means that no one from outside our area is able to physically see houses. If someone does come into Buncombe Co. then they need to stay in quarantine for 14 days. This limits the number of buyers, so for this week the numbers we see should be local people buying and selling. Our Youtube channel also has weekly updates.
THIS WEEK Ap 24-May compared to LAST WEEK Ap 16-23
NEW LISTINGS 69
NEW LISTINGS 62
UNDER CONTRACT 84
UNDER CONTRACT 85
As you can see we stayed on track from week to week. The biggest difference is that the medium home price is moving up to the low $400,000. We have a housing supply shortage in Buncombe Co. This will continue for at least the next year. I expect home prices to continue to climb and by the end of summer that the the average sold price will be in the $400,000.
So if you are local and ready and able to buy then it is best to do so now. If you are planning on selling soon, then your house needs to be in the very best possible condition to get top dollar.
If you have questions, comments, or would like to buy or sale, please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org
How real estate is currently doing depends on where you look and what you are looking for.
The Asheville Region report includes Burke, Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania, Yancey counties. Comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums combined. Quick facts are computer generated from Canopy MLS.
• New Listings decreased 50.9% to 202
• Pending Sales decreased 37.7% to 160
• Inventory decreased 20.8% to 3,789
For the month of March:
• Median Sales Price increased 5.5% to $265,750
• List to Close decreased 0.7% to 136
• Percent of Original List Price Received decreased 0.4% to 93.6%
• Months Supply of Homes for Sale decreased 25.9% to 4.0
Looking at these stats can be confusing and frustrating. Combining rural counties with Asheville metro really skew the numbers. Now more than ever it is important to compare apples to apples. Keeping to the chart we used last week, let’s see what is happening in Buncombe county residential single home market.
THIS WEEK LAST WEEK
When you look at the actual numbers rather than percentages, and compare last week to this week very little has changed in the new listing area. Majority of the new listing are still in the $300,000 and are the majority of those that have gone under contract and those that have closed.
Deciding a list price is based on the current market conditions. Right now sellers are not lowering prices and while loans are still easy to get the housing supply in our area is still very limited.
The glaring difference this week is the number of closings. This is where the Covid 19 stay at home rules are starting to show up. Closing are still taking 30-45 days to close. So there defiantly was a slow down of buyers looking at houses and making offers during the time period Buncombe county stated the Realtors were non essential workers. I expect this trend to be the same next week. We will be more able to determine what is happening in the current market by mid May, when buyers have been able to physically view homes and make offers and moved to the closing table.
So what does this all mean for now? Buncombe county has a major housing shortage. The median house price is climbing to the mid $300K. List prices are not dropping and as long as the seller does not have to sell it is still a seller market in our area. Cash may start to be king for houses above $700K but as long as loans are still available anything under $400K is still closing close to list price.
Buncombe County declared Realtors essential workers last week. For the week of Ap. 10-17 2020 there was definitely more showing actions. We will know next week if these showings will become pending with next weeks stats. (Remember, our stats are based on the past week.) I wanted to compare this week to the same time last year to see if there has been any real impact in our local real estate market. This week the stats are only for Buncombe County and single-family residential homes. I created a table and chart using our regional MLS statics. Be sure to look at charts and table to get an idea of what I’m talking about.
For this week I thought it would be interesting to compare the same week last year. Amazingly there were an increase in new active listings for the 2020. The majority were in the price points between the $300K-$500K. I think the large amount in one week was because sellers held off for a few weeks when the first Covid-19 restrictions were established. Now that buyers can actually see the house sellers are ready to list. This is also probably true for listing that went under contract. Many buyers had seen a house online or had viewed it once and wanted to go back before making the offer. Most of the houses that went under contract this week were in the $300K. Withdraws were about the same in number between 2020 and 2019. The unusual part is that this week the majority of the listing that were withdrawn were in the $200K.
The very big difference was closing. Only 24 this week and 77 last year! This is the results of the “stay at home” restrictions. Buyers who were looking and are not currently looking have put the search on hold. Again we see the average sales price being in the $300K.
I expect the next 30 days will show similar results with the closing being low but new listings and under contract continuing to be steady. What happens the next 30 days will affect our real estate market for the summer session. It really is a wait and see.
Right now sellers are not ready to lower their price unless it is a hardship sale. Cash is good but not king if buyers are still looking for a 30 day close. Cash and fast close, 15 days or less is what sellers really want and if you can do that, then a buyer might get a very good deal.